Re: Мистер Маркет – ваш первый успешный и честный учитель в мире форекс торговли
Что вы имеете ввиду? Пара EURUSD сильно упала после нашей рекомендации.
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Dear Friends and Traders,
With tomorrows important market events coming out form the USA we have compiled a quick report for you to understand what tomorrow has in store for us,
- The FOMC meeting tomorrow is unlikely to provide us with much new information. We expect to receive a statement but no updated projections or press conference. Along with consensus, we expect no change in policy at the meeting.
- We believe the Fed wants to keep all doors open at this point and will try to signal that a December rate hike is an option but by no means given. If markets keep still after the statement, we think the Fed can declare its mission accomplished.
- The tone on recent economic developments is likely to be more downbeat than in September but global economic and financial developments should have become less of a risk.
- In our view, the forward-looking part of the statement is likely to be kept broadly unchanged, as the Fed awaits more data before changing its view on the outlook.
We continue to believe that the first fed funds rate hike will come at either the December or January FOMC meeting, with the highest odds on a January move. The combined soft tone from the ECB on Thursday followed by easing from the Chinese central bank on Friday and possible policy easing from the Bank of Japan and Swedish Riksbank this week, means the trade weighted US dollar has gained 2% over the past one and a half weeks. While on the margin this has tightened financial conditions, the rally in risky assets has largely offset this move. What is left is the positive demand boost from easier monetary policy and diminishing risks of an even more severe global growth slowdown. Hence, we believe that this latest round of policy easing is welcomed by the FOMC.
Here are the main market movers for today,
- In the UK the first estimate of Q3 GDP growth is released. Based on the key economic figures for Q3 released so far (we only have 44% of all information), we estimate GDP growth slowed to 0.5% q/q in Q3 from 0.7% q/q in Q2. If right, this would, however, still be at trend growth
- Euro area money supply figures for September are also due for release and we expect a further improvement to 5.0% y/y. This should follow as the bank lending survey released last week showed a continued increase in demand for loans. For enterprises, the increase in demand for loans was due mainly to the general level of interest rates, as well as to increased needs for fixed investments.
- In the US, Real US capital goods orders ex aircraft and defence showed a significant increase in Q3 after a very weak run over the prior three quarters. August data showed a moderation in growth and September durable goods order data will show whether this was a one-off or if order growth is coming down further in response to global weakness. Also in the US, October data for the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence will give us valuable input about the strength of the labour market with the gauge on ‘jobs plentiful’ and ‘jobs hard to get’. The preliminary Markit PMIs and the S&P Case Shiller House price index will also attract attention.
Global risk sentiment has lost steam after the ECB and People Bank of China (PBoC) induced rally over the previous two sessions. Markets have gone into wait-and-see mode ahead of the upcoming central bank meetings with not least FOMC tomorrow and Bank of Japan on Friday. Sentiment in Asia overnight has also been influenced by Chinese industrial profit figures revealing a y/y and YTD y/y decline of 0.1% and 1.7%, respectively
Commodities prices remain under pressure. While base metals and oil initially rallied on PBoC’s announcement on Friday of additional easing, markets soon questioned the motivation behind further stimulus amid speculations of the validity of last week’s Chinese GDP figures. Brent crude has shredded almost 2% in the last 24 hours, also aided by renewed US stockpile concerns.
New home sales in the US surprised significantly to the downside yesterday, dropping 11.5% y/y and bringing the pace back to 2014 levels. The release was at odds with a series of recent data that suggested that the housing market remains solid. Importantly, the new home sales release is notoriously volatile.
In New Zealand trade balance figures revealed a wider-than-expected trade deficit. The decline was especially due to disappointing export figures but imports also surprised to the upside. The NZD weakened on the release.
The US Navy has tested Chinese territorial claims as a US destroyer has sailed through two artificial islands in the South China Sea.
Mr Markets Trade of the Day
Asset: EURGBP
Entry: We are on standby just before the 10:30 news from the UK
TP: Depends on the scenarios below, but we are looking at around 50 – 80 pips
SL: A stop of about 20 – 30 pips would be fine
Tip: As stated above, even a 0.5% print would be counted as postive and taking into account that only 44% of the necessary information is added to the 0.5% expectations there is still a whole 56% of other important data that could move this pair, we have a feeling it will be good for the GBP.
5 Scenarios- Within expectations: 0.4% to 1.1%. In such a scenario, GBP/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 1.2% to 1.6%: An unexpected higher reading can push the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 1.6%: A surge in the reading would push the pound higher and the pair could break a second line of resistance as a result.
- Below expectations: -0.1% to 0.3%: In this scenario, GBP/USD could drop below one support level.
- Well below expectations: Below -0.1%. A very weak reading could hurt the pound, and the pair could fall below a second level of support.
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Watch the one ahead of you, and you’ll learn why he is ahead. Then emulate him.
One of the surest ways to achieve success is to observe the actions of successful people, determine what principles they regularly employ, and then use them yourself. The principles of success, as Andrew Carnegie said, are definite, they are real, and they can be learned by anyone willing to take the time to study and apply them. If you are truly observant, you will find that you can learn something from almost everyone you meet. And it isn’t even necessary that you know them. You may choose great people who are no longer alive. The important thing is to study their lives, and then learn and apply in your own life the specific principles these people used to achieve greatness.
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Dear Friends and Traders,
Here are the main market movers for today,
- Tonight’s FOMC meeting is unlikely to provide us with much new information. We expect to receive a statement but no updated projections or press conference. Along with consensus, we expect no change in policy at the meeting. We believe the Fed wants to keep all doors open at this point and will try to signal that a December rate hike is an option but by no means a given. The tone on recent economic developments is likely to be more downbeat than in September but global economic and financial developments should have become less of a risk. In our view, the forward-looking part of the statement is likely to be kept broadly unchanged, as the Fed awaits more data before changing its view on the outlook.
- ECB’s Preat and Constanzio speak today. Markets will look for clues on what kind of easing the ECB has in mind.
US key numbers set the tone yesterday. Durable goods orders declined 1.2% m/m in September and August order growth was revised down to -3.0% from -2.0%. The headline was dragged down by non-defence aircraft orders, which was -35.7% in September and -11.2% in August. However, even ex aircraft, durable goods orders were down 0.4% m/m in September and 0.9% in August, so still a weak trend but not as bad as the headline. The gauge on business capex, the capital goods orders ex defence and aircraft was -0.3% in September and -1.6% in August after two strong months, which leaves the three-month annualised growth rate unchanged at 6.2% but the trend into Q4 is on the weak side. US consumer confidence was also on the weak side as it fell to 97.6 from a revised 103. Consensus had expected a roughly unchanged reading
Oil was also high on the agenda yesterday, as Brent oil dropped below USD47 a barrel on expectations that today’s stock data from the Department of Energy will show another build and on fears that the Chinese rate cut earlier this week might reflect a more protracted weakness in the Chinese economy.
The weak numbers together with further comments from ECB members confirming the dovish stance of the ECB made both Bunds and US treasuries rally and the futures market postponed the first Fed rate hike further into 2016 ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting. Note though, that the market is still pricing roughly a 30% probability of a Fed hike at the December meeting but hardly no probability for a move tonight
The news weighed on the US equity market and the major indices all ended with small losses although the losses for the European indices were actually higher. Nikkei is also up slightly this morning after Apple published its positive earnings after the US close.
Mr. Markets Trade of the Day
*We remain where we left of Yesterday.
Asset: EURGBP
Entry: We are looking to take a move at the 100MA, around the price 072265
TP: With today’s important FED meeting this will be a tought trade so we are looking to take a profit at about 50 pips
SL: A stop loss of 20 pips would be enough to get this trade in or out.
Tip: Today will be a strong day, we expect the speakers from the ECB to put a little pressure on the Euro and this is what we want to capitalize on.
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A peacemaker always fares better than an agitator.
In today’s “everything is negotiable” society, we are bombarded with messages telling us that we get what we demand, not what we deserve. You may temporarily achieve success by demanding more than your due from others, but it will not long endure. “Squeaky wheels” may initially receive the most attention, but the wise wagon-master eventually replaces them. It’s easy to create problems and dissension but very difficult to lead others in a spirit of cooperation and harmony. Which type of individual do you think is most valuable to the organization? The greatest rewards in life — both financial and personal — will always accrue to the peacemakers of the world
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